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Syria Atrocities Modeling Report for Phase I

August 11th, 2016

The overall purpose of this pilot project is to explore the contribution that agent-based modeling can make to understanding, anticipating, and thinking counterfactually about mass atrocity events. Phase I of this project proposed to devise model operationalizations of the concepts and variables central to the current thinking on atrocities, and then experimentally test these operationalizations within our existing country models. In this document we describe that process, along with examinations into whether these operationalizations and country models produce credible patterns and forecasts of atrocity occurrence.

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For a detailed description of our ABM input data and modeling strategy, please see our Model Creation Process Documentation.