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V-SAFT Verification & Validation Report

June 28th, 2016

The key to Lustick Consulting’s Verification & Validation (V&V) process is iterative analysis of model inputs, theory, outputs, and empirical indicators. V&V should not be a static, one-time event, but rather an ongoing process of hypothesizing, testing, and confirmation or disconfirmation. In order to implement this goal, Option I of our V-SAFT project called for six quarterly Verification & Validation reports from August 2012 to December 2013 that included our system status, data inputs, and model forecasts. In addition, we performed a MESA Epistemological Decomposition of our Venezuela model in May 2012 to unpack the data and theory behind the model. Lastly, we held multiple sessions with two Subject Matter Experts–Dr. Allen Hicken and Dr. David Faris–who helped us better understand how our models relate to the real-world. Both experts found our approach compelling with relation to their countries (Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand). This report describes the empirical portion of our process.

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